Every year, Zambia releases a seasonal rainfall forecast. Many farmers hear “normal to above-normal rainfall” and either assume it’s going to be a wet year or ignore the forecast completely.
Both reactions miss the point.
A seasonal forecast cannot tell you when it will rain. It estimates whether the season is more likely to be wetter, drier, or close to the long-term average. Used properly, it helps you decide when to plant, which varieties to choose, and how much risk to take. Here’s how to read it.
